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Economía del sur ya venía mal desde inicios de año

Informe IPE – La República Sur

Desaceleración de la minería provocó impacto. Arequipa, Cusco y Apurímac decrecieron.



Según el último informe de productividad del Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI) la actividad económica nacional cayó en 3.4% en el primer trimestre del 2020. La reducción del consumo de los hogares, la paralización de obras y la reducción de la demanda externa influyeron en esa merma. La caída se acentuó en las regiones del sur (-4,6%) donde el impacto mayor se sintió en Arequipa, Apurímac y Cusco

Las regiones de Moquegua y Tacna fueron las que más crecieron en todo el país, al reportar un 27.4% y 16.9% de ascenso, respectivamente. En Moquegua, este impulso lo hizo la producción manufacturera (55.6%) y minera (23.1%), que contrarrestaron la caída en la pesca (-43.4%).

Por su parte, el crecimiento económico de Tacna se explica mayormente por el notable aumento de la producción minera y de hidrocarburos (42.2%), que fue impulsada por una mayor extracción de cobre y molibdeno como resultado de la ampliación de la mina Toquepala. Ello pudo contrarrestar el decrecimiento de construcción y comercio, que ocurrieron por la paralización de las obras y de actividades comerciales al por mayor y menor.

Caídas
Apurímac cayó 15.9%, Arequipa (11%) y Cusco (9.6%). En estas tres regiones, la reducción se explica por una fuerte contracción de la minería e hidrocarburos, principalmente por la menor extracción de cobre y molibdeno. Paralizaron operaciones de las mineras Cerro Verde en Arequipa, Las Bambas en Apurímac –donde, además, afectaron el mantenimiento de la mina y conflictos sociales–, y Antapaccay y Constancia en Cusco. Por otra parte, en Arequipa también sumó la contracción de la producción pesquera (-34.7%).

En Puno, cayó la producción por la contracción de la minería (-27.8%) y construcción (-13.2%).

¿Qué se espera?
Las medidas establecidas en el Perú para prevenir la propagación del COVID-19 paralizó la economía el segundo trimestre. No obstante, con la flexibilización de la movilidad y la reapertura de actividades, se espera que la contracción de la economía se revierta en los siguientes meses. Al respecto, el BCR estima que, si la reactivación se lleva a cabo con los controles sanitarios adecuados y medidas que estimulen la demanda, la economía comenzaría a recuperarse a partir del tercer trimestre.

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